How a post-pandemic over-buying in the US led to a sharp reduction in imports... while consumption also falls
OeMv – Rafael del Rey – September 2024.-
'Since the end of 2023, all the alarms have been set off about the global wine sector because, in addition to the drop in volume trade that we were already suffering, there was also a fall in value. Until then, the value had been growing consistently, with the only exception of the two recent major crises: 2009 and 2020. If at the worst of the COVID19 crisis barely 2.4 million hectolitres were lost in three months (between February and May 2020) and up to 2,200 million euros in a longer period (from €31.9 billion in February 2020 to €29.6 billion in January 2021), the recovery in world trade was rapid and extraordinarily strong. Especially in value.
See also the OeMv report on US wine imports up to June 2024
With the alarms going off due to this evolution of world trade, what many experts and operators in the sector began to ask themselves is the question of whether we are facing a radical change in trend in the trade and consumption of wine in the world or a temporary crisis caused by the great growth that occurred after the pandemic. What we can see, with the still scarce data for the year 2024, is that the current evolution of world wine trade must be explained using possibly both types of components: long-term and short-term; but the latter, the short-term effects and, in particular, the over-storage generated in the United States, are of enormous importance in explaining what is happening'.
